经济管理学院“湖畔问道·风华论坛”：实物改造还是现金补贴？高密度城市住房升级的外部性

讲座题目

Bricks or Cash? Externalities of Housing Upgrading in High-density Cities

主讲人

（单位）

Yi FAN

（新加坡国立大学）

主持人

（单位）

刘修岩

（东南大学）

点评人

（单位）

陈子扬

（南京大学）

王峤

（暨南大学）

讲座时间

11月10日（周二）14:00

讲座地点

综合楼310

主讲人简介

Prof. Yi FAN is a tenured Associate Professor in the Department of Real Estate, NUS Business School. Her research focuses on social sustainability and environmental sustainability, and has been published at leading international journals, such as PNAS, Nature Climate Change, Nature Cities, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Review of Finance, Journal of Urban Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.Yi is currently the Co-Editor of Labour Economics, the official journal of the European Association of Labour Economists. Her opinions have been circulated by international and national organizations, including World Bank, United Nations, and Ministry of National Development Singapore. Her work has been widely featured by international and local media, such as The Economist, VoxChina, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Straits Times, and Channel News Asia.

樊漪，新加坡国立大学商学院长聘副教授；伦敦政治经济学院哲学博士。主要研究领域是城市经济学和劳动经济学，研究课题集中于社会和环境可持续发展。在PNAS,Nature Climate Change, NatureCities, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Reviewof Finance, Journal of Urban Economics, Journal ofEnvironmental Economics and Management等20多本著名国际刊物发表学术论文。主持/参与新加坡教育部学术研究基金以及中国国家自然科学基金8项，曾获HomerHoyt最佳论文奖、新加坡国立大学人文社科领域研究奖、新加坡国立大学商学院优秀教学奖等多项科研教学奖项。现任欧洲劳动经济学家协会官方杂志LabourEconomics共同主编，曾任Renewable & Sustainable EnergyReviews客座编辑。观点和研究被经济学人、彭博、海峡时报、亚洲新闻台等多家国际媒体转介，以及被世界银行、联合国、新加坡国家发展部等多家国际组织和政府机构关注。

讲座内容摘要

They estimate housing externalities in a high-density city, exploiting the staggered rollout of Singapore’s nationwide Main Upgrading Programme for public housing. Controlling for non-random neighborhood exposure, they find that upgrading raises treated buildings’ prices by 11.5% upon completion and neighboring buildings’ resale prices by about 2% within 500 meters, decaying to zero beyond. A model with distance-decaying externalities shows that in dense settings spillovers justify the distortions of in-kind provision; this advantage diminishes and reverses at lower densities. Administrative data on over 2 million residents show that upgrading disproportionately retains older incumbents, suggesting age-specific amenities as an underexplored externality channel.

全球城市普遍面临住房存量老化挑战，传统推倒重建、搬迁补贴等模式存在安置成本高、社会资本流失等问题，实物改造与现金补贴成为主流的存量更新路径，但两者的福利比较长期缺乏系统的实证证据。本文新加坡1990 至 2006 年公共住房升级项目的准自然实验，测度高密度城市下住房改造的外部性规模与空间衰减特征。研究发现，住房改造后自身每平米交易价格提升 11.5%， 500 米范围内存在显著正向溢出效应，平均带来约 2% 的额外房价涨幅，溢出效应随距离快速衰减。进一步分析表明，改造的溢出效应不仅来自物理设施升级，更源于原有住户尤其是老年群体的留存，人口结构稳定推升了区域住房价值。反事实模拟显示，政策选择高度依赖城市密度，新加坡这类超高密度城市中，实物改造的外部性收益可覆盖福利扭曲成本，整体福利优于现金补贴；密度降至新加坡的 6% 时，现金补贴的表现更优。该结论为全球不同密度城市的更新政策制定提供了参考依据。